The Wright brothers and the ten-million-year forecast

Wilbur and Orville Wright repaired and built bicycles in Dayton, in the United States. They had no university degree. They had method, patience and a workshop.

The no

The most famous no came from outside. On October 9, 1903, The New York Times published an editorial called "Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly", written after a failure by the researcher Samuel Langley. The text said that the flying machine which would really fly might be evolved by the efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians "in from one million to ten million years".

The other no came from within, and it's even more human. On November 5, 1908, receiving the gold medal of the Aéro-Club de France, in Paris, Wilbur confessed that in 1901, discouraged by the glider tests, he had told his brother that man would not fly for fifty years. Two years later, they were flying. Wilbur said it gave him such a shock as a prophet that he stopped making predictions.

What they did

Instead of giving up after 1901, the brothers built a small wind tunnel in the workshop and redid the lift tables they were using, because the data published by others was wrong. On December 17, 1903, at Kill Devil Hills, near Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, the Flyer made four flights. The first, with Orville at the controls, lasted 12 seconds and covered about 37 meters. The last, with Wilbur, lasted 59 seconds and covered about 260 meters. Sixty-nine days after the editorial.

In Brazil, the first flight is credited to Santos-Dumont, because the 14-Bis took off under its own power, without rail or catapult, before the public and an official commission, in 1906. Both stories are true, and each has its own page: see Santos-Dumont and the 14-Bis.

What this has to do with Bairo

Wilbur's confession is the part Bairo Leandro Gonzalez Martinez recognizes most. Sometimes the heaviest "it can't be done" doesn't come from the newspaper. It comes from within, on a bad day. What set the Wrights apart from everyone else wasn't never having doubted. It was going back to the workshop the next day.

Bairo says he tried, thought about stopping and nearly gave up more times than he likes to remember. He also says that, after each fall, he shortened the time he allowed himself to stay on the ground. It's in The sun is for everyone and in The seventh attempt. And the rule that remained is the usual one: no is the foundation of yes.

The date of the flight has its own page: December 17.

Sources

• "Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly", The New York Times, 10/09/1903: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Machines_Which_Do_Not_Fly
• Big Think / Pessimists Archive: https://bigthink.com/pessimists-archive/air-space-flight-impossible/
• Wilbur Wright's speech at the Aéro-Club de France, 11/05/1908: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1908_in_aviation
• Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum, 1903 Wright Flyer: https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/1903-wright-flyer/nasm_A19610048000
• Wright Brothers National Memorial (National Park Service): https://www.nps.gov/wrbr/