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In the world · Artificial intelligence · 14 January 2024

IMF: AI will affect 40% of the world's jobs

In 2024 the IMF estimated that AI affects 40% of jobs worldwide and 60% in rich countries. At Davos 2026, Georgieva returned to it. What it means.

bairogonzalez.com team, drawing on Bairo's story · Published

In January 2024, the International Monetary Fund estimated that artificial intelligence will affect about 40% of the world's jobs, and about 60% in advanced economies. Affecting does not only mean eliminating: in the IMF's analysis, in some of these jobs AI raises the productivity of the worker, and in others it replaces tasks. In January 2026, at Davos, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva returned to the subject and warned of the effect on young people looking for their first job.

What happened

On the eve of the 2024 World Economic Forum, the IMF published an analysis of AI and work, presented by Georgieva on the Fund's blog. The figures, according to Agência Brasil:

  • about 40% of the world's jobs are exposed to AI;
  • in advanced economies, about 60%;
  • in emerging markets such as Brazil, exposure is lower, and in low-income countries, lower still;
  • AI can increase wage inequality and put pressure on the middle class if nothing is done.

Two years later, at Davos, Georgieva revisited the numbers and used a powerful image. According to Fortune, she compared AI to a tsunami hitting the labor market and noted that, among exposed workers, about half may benefit and the other half faces the risk of automation. The hardest point was about young people: the tasks AI eliminates tend to be precisely those of entry-level jobs, and that makes landing a first position harder.

Why it matters

The 40% figure is often read as a threat. The IMF's own reading is more demanding: the same job can become more productive or disappear, and what decides which side it falls on is, to a large extent, whether the person learns to work with the tool.

In Brazil, the estimated exposure is lower than in rich countries, but that is not protection. It means the wave arrives later, and that there is time, though short, to prepare. The math is harder for those starting their careers, who are exactly the ones with the least experience to negotiate with.

In Bairo's view

For Bairo Leandro Gonzalez Martinez, the question "will AI steal my job?" starts off wrong. In his reading, AI is an extension of the human, not the problem, and those who use it as an extension expand what they know how to do, instead of competing with it.

He speaks of our time as the meeting of the last generation of humans who grew up without AI with the first generation of AI, the code 0.1 and 1.0. For Bairo, Georgieva's warning about young people is a call: those starting out need to learn to work with AI from day one, and those who already know need to teach.

He himself says he started without knowing how to code and spent six months learning to build with the tools of his time. In his reading, that is the answer open to anyone: not waiting for the job to change, but changing with it.

Niche AIs come in here as tools of the trade. CLAIN, the agent orchestrator he founded, bets on specialists that help a professional do their own work better, always with the decision going back to the person. The goal of 142 niche AIs in 142 days, announced on October 1, 2026, is a goal.

Where this meets the ecosystem

  • SOSPROCESSOS, under development, is designed to give a small law office the analytical capacity that used to require a large team, without taking the defense away from the lawyer.
  • Xperienc Global Labs has among its proposals a professional training center, in partnership with Hospital Granja Julieta, which is a distinct entity.
  • The practical guides, such as Will AI steal my job? and How to write a résumé with AI, were written for those who want to take the first step today.

Sources

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In the world: Artificial intelligence