A very strong El Niño in 2026: what changes for the harvest

Brazil enters the 2026/27 harvest under an El Niño that could be one of the strongest ever measured. According to the National Institute of Meteorology, Inmet, the phenomenon was declared in June 2026 and has a probability above 90% of being very strong in the spring and summer of 2026/27. The expectation is above-average rain in the South and drier weather in the North, the Northeast and parts of the Center-West. For those who produce food, this means a year of uneven risk across regions.

What happened

The cycle began with the opposite. The 2025/26 harvest was marked by a weak La Niña, which dissipated in early 2026. In a bulletin published on September 10, 2026, Inmet reconstructed this turnaround: in January, models already pointed to a transition to neutral conditions; in June, El Niño was declared; and since then, the warming of the Pacific has intensified rapidly. The institute puts the chance at 75% that the event becomes, between October and December, the strongest recorded since 1950, and stresses that this is a probabilistic forecast, not a certainty.

The expected effects vary by region. In the South, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the risk is of heavy rain and flooding. In the North and Northeast, of below-average rain and drought. In central Brazil, of high temperatures and prolonged dry spells.

The projection has already reached the spreadsheets. In May, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics, Imea, estimated a yield of 62.44 bags per hectare for Mato Grosso soybeans in 2026/27, down 5.43%, and production of 48.88 million tonnes, according to CNA. On September 1, meteorologist John Baranick, of DTN, wrote that areas closest to the Amazon, such as Mato Grosso, are at greater risk of prolonged drought, while the South tends to be favored.

Why it matters

Weather is agribusiness's first risk and the one that turns into price most quickly. Conab attributed the slight drop in the volume of fruit and vegetables sold at the wholesale supply centers in 2025 precisely to adverse weather conditions. A strong El Niño could repeat that effect on a larger scale: too much water in the South, too little in the North and Northeast, irregular supply and more volatile prices.

For fruit and vegetable growers, who work with perishable products and thin margins, the volatility is twofold. An untimely rain ruins the quality of a load, and a drought makes irrigation more expensive. For the trader at the supply center, uncertain supply changes the negotiation every day. And for those who buy food, the bill lands on the plate.

In Bairo's view

For Bairo Leandro Gonzalez Martinez, El Niño shows why growers need information before they need credit. In his reading, the grower knows things no spreadsheet knows, such as when rain is going to delay the harvest, and good technology starts by listening to that wisdom and ends by handing back a useful tool.

Bairo argues that climate forecasts, CEASA prices and Conab surveys should be read together, in favor of those who plant. For him, a direct connection between grower, trader and buyer makes it possible to bring sales forward, adjust supply and negotiate with data, instead of reacting to losses. In his view, climate risk is also financial risk, and the two need to be handled on the same screen.

Where this meets the ecosystem

CEASA Bank is an agribusiness financial platform, founded by Bairo, that operates on the infrastructure of an authorized institution. It is not an authorized bank. Among the proposals described by the founder is agricultural prediction for harvests, alongside quotes with artificial intelligence based on CEASA and Conab data.

The idea is for growers and traders to see, on one screen, the price reference and the harvest's risk signals, and to decide with more information. Prediction is a decision-support tool, under construction, and not a guarantee of results: the one who decides is always the one who produces. Instituto CEASA also proposes making use of the supply centers' surplus, which tends to grow in years of irregular supply.

Sources

• Inmet, "De La Niña a um possível El Niño muito forte: veja a evolução das projeções em 2026" (From La Niña to a possible very strong El Niño: see how the 2026 projections evolved), 09/10/2026: portal.inmet.gov.br
• Inmet, "El Niño em 2026?" (El Niño in 2026?): portal.inmet.gov.br
• CNA, "El Niño poderá influenciar projeção da safra 2026/27 de soja em Mato Grosso" (El Niño may influence the projection for the 2026/27 soybean harvest in Mato Grosso), 05/07/2026 (Imea projection): cnabrasil.org.br
• DTN Progressive Farmer, John Baranick, "South America Preview: El Nino to Play Big Role During the 2026-2027 Season", 09/01/2026: dtnpf.com
• Conab/Prohort, sales at the Ceasas in 2025, 07/28/2026: gov.br/conab

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