Agribusiness GDP grows 12.2% in 2025, says Cepea

Brazil's agribusiness GDP grew 12.20% in 2025 and reached about R$ 3.2 trillion, according to the calculation by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics, Cepea, of Esalq/USP, in partnership with the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock, CNA. With that, agribusiness came to account for 25.13% of the country's economy, compared with 22.9% in 2024. The result was driven above all by livestock, which grew 32.55% in the year.

What happened

The fourth-quarter report, released on April 27, 2026, closes the year with two movements. For 2025 as a whole, the crop branch advanced 3.40% and the livestock branch 32.55%. By segment, growth was 5.37% in inputs, 17.06% in the primary segment, 5.60% in agro-industry and 13.76% in agro-services. The volume produced rose 6.76%, and real prices also rose, which amplified the result.

But Cepea itself records the slowdown. Between the third and fourth quarters of 2025, agribusiness GDP fell 1.11%, with declines in every segment. According to the report, the strong growth of the previous quarters was mainly due to the price appreciation that began in the second half of 2024, which started to lose strength from the third quarter of 2025. In the crop branch, agro-industry closed the year down 3.33%.

The result was reported by the sector press, such as Canal Rural, which highlighted the R$ 3.2 trillion mark and agribusiness's greater weight in the economy.

Why it matters

A quarter of the Brazilian economy passes through agribusiness. That includes the grower, but also the input industry, agro-industry, transport, trade and services. The growth in 2025 shows the sector's strength, and the detail shows where it was concentrated: in livestock and in prices, more than in a balanced expansion of the whole chain.

For fruit and vegetable growers, the average hides reality. While agribusiness GDP rose by double digits, fruit and vegetable sales at the wholesale supply centers stayed practically flat, with a slight drop, according to Conab. And the same year recorded a record number of judicial reorganization filings in the countryside, according to Serasa Experian. Growing in the aggregate and tightening at the edge can happen at the same time.

In Bairo's view

For Bairo Leandro Gonzalez Martinez, Cepea's figure confirms that Brazil is an agricultural powerhouse, and he makes a point of recalling what that should include. In his reading, an agricultural powerhouse is not just exported grain and fattened cattle; it is also the family that grows tomatoes, the leafy-greens cooperative and the street-market vendor who buys at the supply center and sells in the neighborhood.

Bairo argues that part of this growth should reach those closest to the land, and that this goes through information and connection. For him, when there is a direct connection between grower, trader and buyer, with quotes based on public CEASA and Conab data, the value generated stops accumulating only far from those who start the chain. In his view, the next big change in agribusiness will not happen on the tractor, but on the grower's phone.

Where this meets the ecosystem

CEASA Bank is an agribusiness financial platform, founded by Bairo, that operates on the infrastructure of an authorized institution. It is not an authorized bank. The proposal is to bring financial tools to the link in agribusiness that GDP usually hides: the grower and the trader at the wholesale supply centers.

The design includes quotes with artificial intelligence based on CEASA and Conab data, invoices issued in minutes, dashboards for traders to track their own business and the record of every transaction. In the ecosystem Bairo describes, that record goes through BTZ Chain, a record network with proof of authenticity, so that the grower's history is verifiable. These are proposals under construction.

Sources

• Cepea/Esalq-USP and CNA, "PIB do agronegócio cresce 12,20% em 2025, impulsionado pela pecuária" (Agribusiness GDP grows 12.20% in 2025, driven by livestock), 04/27/2026 (PDF): cepea.org.br
• Cepea, page of the "PIB do Agronegócio Brasileiro" (Brazilian Agribusiness GDP) series: cepea.org.br
• Canal Rural, "PIB do agro cresce 12,2% em 2025 e supera R$ 3,2 trilhões, aponta Cepea/CNA" (Agribusiness GDP grows 12.2% in 2025 and exceeds R$ 3.2 trillion, says Cepea/CNA), April 2026: canalrural.com.br
• Conab/Prohort, sales at the Ceasas in 2025, 07/28/2026: gov.br/conab
• Serasa Experian, "Recuperação judicial: agro fecha 2025 com quase 2 mil solicitações" (Judicial reorganization: agribusiness closes 2025 with almost 2,000 filings), 03/09/2026: serasaexperian.com.br

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