Validating the idea
Did my idea come too early?
Maybe. The sign of too early: the problem exists, but customers don't feel the pain yet. Keep the idea alive in a smaller version and watch the signals.
bairogonzalez.com team, drawing on Bairo's story · Published
Arriving too early is a real way to fail. In CB Insights' 2024 analysis of 431 startups that shut down, 29% cited bad timing or market conditions. It isn't enough for the idea to be good: the customer has to feel the pain now, the technology has to be cheap enough and the habit has to exist.
But "too early" also becomes a comfortable excuse for not looking at other problems. Before concluding you're ahead of your time, it's worth testing.
The practical path
- Separate three questions. Does the problem exist today? Do people know they have it? Do they already spend money trying to solve it somehow? If the answer to the third is no, it's probably too early.
- Watch for arrival signals. Competitors appearing abroad, big companies testing something similar, the cost of the technology falling, a change in the law, the topic showing up more in Google Trends searches. These signals say the window is opening.
- Find the niche that already feels the pain. Almost every "too early" idea has a small group that already needs it today. Start with them: it's smaller, but it pays.
- Keep the idea alive cheaply. You don't have to choose between all and nothing. Keep a minimum version, some content, a list of interested people, while you earn money with something else.
- Write down your thesis with a date. Write today what you believe will happen and when. Review it every six months. That separates vision from hope.
- Don't burn all your capital waiting for the market. The market may take longer than your cash can hold out. Those who arrive early need a long runway.
An honest test helps tell the two situations apart: show the idea to ten people who have the problem and ask how much they spent, in the last year, trying to solve it. If the answer is "nothing" because they didn't even know it was a problem, it's probably early. If they spent money and are still dissatisfied, maybe it isn't early: maybe the product just isn't right yet.
How Bairo went through it
Bairo Leandro Gonzalez Martinez says he lived this twice. First, he wanted to bring artificial intelligence and augmented reality into a business. People said it wouldn't work. He believed in it and, even believing, gave up. Years later, the very same thing became a trend.
He often says, about that phase, that arriving too early also means arriving alone. Being right ahead of time doesn't pay the bills, but it shows the eye is true.
The second time was with natural-based cosmetics, at a time when few people were betting on them. This time he didn't stop at the first answer. The brand worked, and natural cosmetics became a trend years later. The difference between the two stories wasn't the idea; it was that he found a way to keep the business standing while the market caught up.
The Method step
This doubt lives in step 2 of the Seventh Attempt Method: ask what is inside the no. A "timing no" is different from a "market no": it doesn't ask you to abandon the idea, it asks for a smaller format and more time. Classify the no you received before deciding.
Discover the Seventh Attempt Method